The time has come for the eyes of the world to descend on Tinseltown. The 95th Academy Awards nominations are out, and there were quite a number of surprises and snubs. When it comes to betting on the Oscars, surprises are actually a good thing. Here is your post-nomination breakdown of this year’s Academy Award nominees.
This category has been pretty solidified for the past month with eight of the 10 nominees holding spots with two additional spots up for grabs in this category of 10. The three movies setting the pace this Oscar season have been Everything Everywhere All At Once (-200), The Banshees of Inisherin ( 225) and The Fabelmans (11/1). But as we creep closer to the big night on March 12th, a splashy contender might crash the party, Top Gun: Maverick (10/1). Top Gun has been gaining traction and could upset the favorites due to the ranked voting process for the Oscars. With that said, at this point it’s hard to see anyone but EEAAO or The Banshees of Inisherin lifting a golden man in March.
Front Runner: Everything Everywhere All At Once (-200)
Gaining Momentum: The Banshees of Inisherin ( 225)
Longshot to Watch: Top Gun: Maverick (10/1)
The Best Actor category was looking more like a coronation than a competition about a month ago with Brenden Frasier (-165) as the front-runner and feel-good story. But after the Golden Globes and the release of Banshees on HBO Max, Colin Farrell ( 250) has gained ground since his win at the Golden Globes. The same can be said for Austin Butler ( 300) who also won at the Globes in the same category as Frasier. Frasier did pick up a win at the Critics’ Choice Awards but as we move closer to the Oscars, watch out for Ferrell and Butler this Awards Season. For this category, I would either take Colin Farrell now at 250 or wait until after the SAG Awards and reevaluate.
Front Runner: Brenden Frasier (-165)
Gaining Momentum: Colin Farrell ( 250)
Longshot to Watch: Austin Butler ( 300)
This race is essentially down to two women even after the official announcement. Most people who predict the winner of these awards have boiled this race down to the favorite Cate Blanchett (-175) and the fan favorite Michelle Yeoh ( 125). Before the nominations, Blanchett felt like the secure favorite, but with EEAAO’s huge nomination Tuesday where they came away with the most nominations in this year’s Oscars, this could spell trouble for Blanchett as the EEAAO team is traveling in force to each stop along the Oscar trail. I would wait until after the BAFTAs, right before SAGs. then fire on Michelle Yeoh, who I think still has a fighting chance in the Best Actress category.
Front Runner: Cate Blanchett (-175)
Gaining Momentum: Michelle Yeoh ( 125)
Longshot to Watch: Andrea Riseborough (11/1)
Best Supporting Actress
One of the biggest surprises of Nomination Tuesday came in the Supporting Actress category with Stephanie Hsu (16/1), who I personally thought was one of the best parts of EEAAO. I was shocked when nomination rumors started trickling out and A24, the films Production Company, was throwing their weight behind Jamie Lee Curtis (10/1). Angela Bassett (-250) is the current front-runner, but much of that is due to the fact that she won at the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards. As we go through the more prestigious ceremonies like the SAGs and the BAFTAs, I don’t think the Marvel hive will help her going forward during the season. Once the nominations came out, Hsu was 25/1 and at the time of writing this article, she has already rocketed up to 16/1. This single nomination has flipped this category upside down.
Front Runner: Angela Bassett (-250)
Gaining Momentum: Stephanie Hsu (16/1)
Longshot to Watch: Kerry Condon ( 225)
Best Supporting Actor
This category had some very surprising nominations, but that is really the only interesting thing about this category. The person who has been cleaning up on the trail, and rightfully so, is Ke Huy Quan (-1000). He deserves the praise he is receiving, and I think that continues on his way to the Oscar stage. The only other contenders that might have a chance are Brenden Gleeson ( 550) and Barry Keoghan (10/1) who are both from the same film which typically pulls votes from one another, strengthening Quan’s chances in March.
Front Runner: Ke Huy Quan (-1000)
Gaining Momentum: None
Longshot Watch: Brenden Gleeson ( 550, Barry Keoghan (10/1)
The early chatter has been this is Steven Spielberg’s ( 110) award to lose. This is a sneaky good race. Out of the five nominees, three of the five have a shot at the big award. Spielberg won at the Globes, which was pretty telegraphed, but at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (-140) (The Daniels as they are referenced) took home the Best Director Prize. Another wrinkle was thrown in when the BAFTAs were announced, and Spielberg was omitted from the nomination list. That is when The Daniels were thrust into the betting favorites. But I still have a strong feeling for Spielberg at the Oscars. He is campaigning hard for The Fabelmans, and the Academy would love to honor him with a sort of lifetime achievement Oscar. I would wait until after the BAFTAs where The Daniels or Martin McDonagh (12/1) will win. Spielberg’s number will then rise, and that would be a good opportunity to get better line value maybe somewhere closer to 145 or 150.
Front Runner: Steven Spielberg ( 110)
Gaining Momentum: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (-140)
Longshot to Watch: Martin McDonagh (12/1)
Below The Line Bets:
As award season continues, more categories will become available to bet. Judging the early numbers from DraftKings, a few categories that are presenting plus money are Costume Design and Production Design. To give you some of my early predictions for these categories, I would lean towards Elvis ( 125) for Costume Design and All Quiet on the Western Front ( 550) for Production Design. These markets will shift as award shows go by, so as an early tip, make sure to bet early because if you get to the night before the Oscars, there will be almost zero value left in most markets.
Some key dates to keep track of where you will see the lines move:
British Academy of Motion Picture Awards: February 19, 2023
Producers Guild of America Awards: February 25, 2023
Screen Actors Guild Awards: February 26, 2023
Academy Awards: March 12, 2023
You can hear more about my initial reactions to the odds here as part of the Greg Peterson Experience. I recently joined host Greg Peterson and Thom Cunningham from Stats Perform to discuss the Oscar nominations.